Sustainability Transition Pathways: Evidence from 15 Countries

Pathways to a Post-Carbon Economy

Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 requires structural transformation across energy systems, land use, industry and mobility. The WISE Horizons sustainability domain maps current transition trajectories against scientifically grounded boundaries, drawing on the planetary boundaries framework and the EU Green Deal targets.

The comparative analysis reveals that transition speed is strongly mediated by institutional quality, public investment levels and the distributional fairness of carbon pricing schemes. Countries with higher social trust and robust labour market support programmes have achieved faster decarbonisation without proportionally greater social cost.

Policy Implications

The evidence points towards a core design principle: sustainability transitions succeed when they are constructed as socially inclusive projects. Carbon revenues reinvested in affected communities, skills retraining programmes and energy-poverty support consistently appear as enabling conditions in the case studies examined.

Conversely, top-down transitions that ignore distributional concerns generate political backlash that ultimately slows implementation — a pattern observed in three of the studied countries following unpopular fuel-tax increases.

Are you a policymaker looking for tailored evidence? Get in touch with the WISE Horizons team.